The almost simultaneous occurrence of the two events provided one more symbol of the division of the United Kingdom. While in London, the queen was preparing to proceed to the opening of the Parliament, reading the government program of a visibly delighted Boris Johnson, in Edinburgh, the Scottish Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, officially asked, Thursday, December 19 , the organization of a new independence referendum from 2020.
Legislative elections on December 12 resulted in the triumph of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in England. But in Scotland, the independence party (Scottish National Party, SNP) has largely won, winning 48 of the 59 seats at stake. "Scotland has been clear (…), she does v(Had) not a conservative government led by Boris Johnson that takes us out of Europe and takes us on a path that we did not choose "explains Mme Sturgeon.
During the legislative election campaign, the SNP had put the promise of a second referendum at the heart of its program. According to him, the prospect of Brexit, which Scotland rejected at 62% in 2016, justifies this new popular consultation only five years after the 2014 referendum on independence (lost at 55% against 45%). "A significant change in circumstances" occurred, argues Mme Sturgeon in reference to the exit from the EU. She wants the new popular consultation to take place "Before the end of 2020".
“Long-term campaign”
The problem is that the Scottish government needs the approval of Mr Johnson to organize this referendum. For 2014, Prime Minister David Cameron gave the green light. This time, Johnson strongly opposes it, saying the Scots have already had the opportunity to speak on the issue in a vote that was supposed to settle the matter. "For a generation".
Mme Sturgeon warns, however, that this dry refusal will not be enough. "They should not imagine that this will be the end of the discussion. We will continue to fight for Scotland’s democratic right to choose. " However, it rejects a Catalan-style scenario, with a referendum not recognized by the capital. “We will work in a reasonable and considerate manner. "
The Scottish Prime Minister will therefore operate in stages. This Thursday it released the bill asking the British government for the right to hold a referendum. "A refusal can then open a legal battle, which could go up to the Supreme Court", analyzes Neil McGarvey, political analyst at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow. Politically, the showdown with an inflexible British government can work in favor of Mme Sturgeon, while the Scottish Parliament elections will take place in the spring of 2021. "The SNP is preparing for a long-term campaign"continues Mr. McGarvey.
This wait can do the business of the separatists, who need time. For the time being, polls on average give a slight majority to stay in the UK, around 52%. That’s why Mme Sturgeon focused his arguments not on independence, but on the right to hold a referendum. "I do not pretend that every SNP voter will necessarily support independence, but this election was a strong support for Scotland to choose its future", she explained as soon as the result of the legislative elections was known. Like it or not, Mr. Johnson is not about to get rid of the Scottish case.
