While the UK was the first European country affected by Omicron – the first case detected dates back to November 28 -, it is scrutinized by all public health specialists. With a new variant that is both more contagious but apparently causes milder forms of the disease, one of the main tests is whether UK hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.
For now, the first signs seem encouraging. “It’s okay for the moment, it’s nothing compared to the previous waves”, says an anesthetist at a south London hospital, who requests anonymity. “It’s not the same disease anymore, said on the BBC John Bell, professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, very involved in the development of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The horrific scenes from last year – intensive care full, lots of people dying prematurely – are history. “ Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, makes the same diagnosis, albeit a little more cautiously: “No one knows for sure whether hospitals will be swamped by the wave, but I would tend to think that they will not. “
The first national statistics – incomplete during this holiday season, where the statements are sometimes compiled late – are rather reassuring, showing a break between the number of positive cases and hospitalizations. As of Wednesday, December 29, the United Kingdom has admittedly registered 183,000 positive cases over the last twenty-four hours, by far its highest level since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Over seven days, the daily average is 130,000 cases, two and a half times more than during the peak of the Delta wave in January. But hospitalizations are currently three to four times lower, with 10,400 patients in England, against 34,000 in January. Even in London, where the wave started, hospitals are holding up the shock: they are currently treating 3,300 patients, far from the 7,800 in January. “In absolute value, the levels remain relatively low”, emphasizes Mr. Bell.
“Incidental admissions”
These figures could also give a distorted picture of reality. “Many patients who go to the hospital have the Covid, but are not there because of the Covid, explains Chris Hopson, director of NHS Providers, the organization that represents English hospitals. We have quite a few people who, for example, fell off their bikes and broke their arms or hit their heads. They have no symptoms, but when they arrive, they test positive for Covid. “
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