On June 24, 2016 in the morning, the pale face, visibly shaken, Boris Johnson made a speech celebrating the victory of Brexit. The leader of the camp in favor of leaving the European Union (EU) obviously did not expect it. ” There is no emergency “he temporized immediately, believing that Article 50 intended to trigger the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from European construction could well wait.
Six years later, Thursday July 7, the political leader was forced to resign. It was not Brexit that made him lose power, quite the contrary. His Conservative Party colleagues blame him above all for the permanent chaos that surrounds him and his repeated lies. In their numerous letters of resignation in recent days, the ministers and other secretaries of state questioned above all his ” integrity “ and his “probity”.
However, in hollow, the question of Brexit remains. Not to know if it should be called into question: the exit from the EU was carried out by Boris Johnson, and no major British political leader is considering a step back. On Monday July 4, Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labor opposition, even lifted the last ambiguities, ruling out not only returning to the EU, but also to the single market.
As for the Conservatives, who were still officially pro-European in 2015 (despite latent skepticism), they now define themselves by Brexit. “Boris Johnson has set the bar for euroscepticism extremely high, notes Tim Bale, professor at Queen Mary University, specialist in the Conservative Party. Hitting Brussels has become a kind of reflex that repeats itself with each crisis. For his succession, it is possible that we fall into an escalation to whoever will be the most Brexiter. »
Liberal leap or “rebalancing”
The economic difficulties caused by the divorce with the EU, although real, do not change anything. Since the official exit from the single market, on 1er January 2021, first the Covid-19 pandemic, then the war in Ukraine, pushed the slowdown in trade with the EU or the stagnation of investments into the background. UK government officials estimate that Brexit will cost the UK about four points of growth over a decade. But this is a slow erosion, barely visible compared to the current inflation shock.
No turning back, then. On the other hand, the Conservative Party never really defined how it intended to use Brexit. For what economic and political project? Is Brexit destined to embark on a great liberal leap inspired by Thatcher, as the Brexit pioneers assured? Is it, on the contrary, a tool for “rebalance the country” in favor of the poor northern regions, as Boris Johnson promised? What can the UK do today that it couldn’t do before?
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