“There is reason to wonder about the real advances that this trompe-l’oeil agreement allows”

Tribune. This September 15 could have entered the history of the peoples of the Middle East as a date arousing a real surge of hope. On that day, alongside US President Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and representatives of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain initialed a peace agreement putting an end to the centuries-old conflict between Israel and two Arab Gulf countries. In a region of the world accustomed to conflict, we can only rejoice that peace is advancing and normalization between Israel and the Arab states.

However, we must also know how to go beyond this first observation and look at reality with lucidity. The high mass around Donald Trump is also to be put into perspective, because it can be the bearer of an illusion, at the risk of aggravating the situation.

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It should first be remembered that the document signed at the White House is not a peace treaty, contrary to what the American president ardently proclaims. Indeed, unlike Egypt and Jordan, the United Arab Emirates have never waged a war against Israel. This is also the case for Bahrain, which acts here as a proxy and whose sovereignty remains limited as the archipelago depends on aid from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

The signed agreement provides for mutual recognition which should lead to the opening of embassies, direct airlines and commercial relations in sectors as diverse as high technology, telecoms, the environment and tourism. Even if, for years, exchanges between these three countries had been open secret – particularly in the field of intelligence for the Emirates – the formalization of this relationship allows the three nations to publicly assume a partnership made necessary by the fight against the expansionist aims of the great powers of the region, Iran and Turkey.

Arab consensus is shattered

This is where the limits of this agreement are defined. Because if the emphasis is on the benefits, it is clear that the costs of such a commitment are numerous. For Palestinians, Abu Dhabi’s lonely step forward is seen as a “Stab in the back” since it will not change the occupation regime.

Contrary to what was presented by the regent and strongman of the Emirates, Mohammed Ben Zayed Al-Nahyane, the project of annexation of the West Bank, dear to Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters, is not ruled out. It is simply postponed and it is to be feared that the Israeli prime minister will not hesitate to take it out of his hat as soon as electoral circumstances push him to do so. The Israeli Prime Minister can thus boast of having achieved a resounding success: the agreement which recognizes de facto the occupation of the territories does not impose on Tel Aviv any concession in favor of the Palestinians nor any return to political negotiations.

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