Losses & profits. Like children, stock market investors like to be scared with witch stories. These often travel in groups of three or four, like the horsemen of the Apocalypse. The world economy also has its bad fairies. And 2020 didn't wait long to bring up its own. There are three, three wars that will have a major impact on the progress of the world.
The first is hot war, the most immediate. In deciding to shoot down one of the main leaders of the Tehran regime on January 2, Donald Trump deliberately took the risk of a real armed conflict. The fight is not balanced, but Iran has the means to wreak havoc in the Gulf region, the center of the oil world. With, on the front line, the monarchies of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates or Qatar, which are home to American bases. Reactions to crude prices have remained moderate, but a major conflict could radically change the situation.
Especially since Iran is not the only destabilizing factor. Turkey is now entering the internal conflict in Libya. Here again, oil is at the forefront and the reason for Ottoman activism. The latter is also at work off Cyprus, a member of the European Union, to seize marine deposits of black gold.
“Iron Curtain” on international trade relations
The second witch is also a war, but cold, that one. She also declared by the American president, worried about the rise of China and its devastating effect on the industry of the United States. In response, the Middle Kingdom embarked on a vast enterprise to nationalize its industry, particularly in high technology. Within two years, Chinese government computers, chips and software will need to be local.
After 30 years of globalization that has lifted China out of poverty, it now believes that it is strong enough to do without Western technology. An "iron curtain" falls on international trade relations. Since 2017, trade between the two countries has dropped by 9% and direct investment by 60%.
Man against himself
It didn't stop American growth, but it slowed the Chinese down and accelerated, in fact and in mind, the idea that globalization was behind us. This will have a cost. According to the weekly The Economist, the mere duplication of supplier chains and technology standards could cost $ 2,000 billion (1,790 billion euros), or 6% of the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of the two superpowers.
