Chronic. In the Arab world, there is the first class, or rather the “business” class. From Kuwait to Oman, Gulf monarchies and principalities line up museums, futuristic waterfront architectures, high-tech laboratories, starred hotels and tax havens. To which must be added… the latest fighter planes, by the dozen – like the French Rafale sold on Friday 3 December in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Material wealth masks strategic concern.
Along the old pirate coast, it’s serenity, luxury and pleasure, just like airline flyers. “Oases of calm, prosperity and political stability” in a region less peaceful than ever, writes Denis Bauchard, veteran of French diplomacy, in a book as learned as it is precise: The Middle East challenged by chaos, half a century of failures and hopes (Maisonneuve and Larose / Hémisphères, 396 pages, 26 euros).
Nature has done things badly. She distributed the riches where men are not. From Kuwait City to Oman, an exceptional concentrate of hydrocarbons ensures the happiness of a few million residents of the Gulf: 35 million in Saudi Arabia; 10 million in the United Arab Emirates (UAE); over 5 million in Oman; 4.2 million for Kuwait; 2.8 million for Qatar; 1.7 million for Bahrain. It should also be noted that, very often, “nationals” represent only 10% of these figures.
But, with the exception of Iraq and Algeria, the most populous Arab countries do not have this good oil or gas fortune. The Mashreq – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon – is in the adversity of the post-war years: economic misery and political instability. The ruthless dictatorship of Marshal Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi believes he can give back some of his past ambitions to Egypt. Young people from the Maghreb – Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco – think about immigration.
An old, multi-component battle
The luxury of the Gulf’s micro-cities does not make us forget the strategic environment. He is dangerous, unstable, like an evil sand wind blowing from east to west, and could well bring war. The Arabian Gulf is at the forefront of the confrontation between its leader, the Saudi regime, and the great power on the eastern shore, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
It is an old battle with multiple components – Persians against Arabs, Shiite Muslims against Sunni Muslims, “revolutionaries” against monarchies – and where the stake is the preponderance on the region. Classic pattern: in Riyadh as in Tehran, we claim to have only defensive concerns. The Iranians because they were attacked by Iraq, supported by the Gulf states, in 1980; the Saudis because they assume to be at the head of a coalition intended to counter the galloping expansionism of the Islamic Republic.
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