Since the announcement of a normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel, some Sudanese support this decision, which could help the country to emerge from the throes of the economic crisis, while another castigates a betrayal of the “Pan-Arab cause”.
Made Friday, October 23 by US President Donald Trump, this announcement comes in the wake of another: that of the upcoming withdrawal of Sudan from the list ” black “ of states supporting the “Terrorism”, on which Khartoum has appeared since 1993.
Sudan has long demanded its removal from this list, synonymous with sanctions and investment barriers for its economy, weighed down by the lack of foreign exchange and an annual inflation rate of over 200%. His demand increased after the fall of Omar Al-Bashir in April 2019, under pressure from the streets, and with the emergence of a transitional power. Combined with leaving the American list, normalization with the Hebrew state is now seen by part of the public as a means of breaking the isolation of Sudan.
The agreement will allow “To reintegrate the international community” and facilitate dialogue with “The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)”, says analyst and editor of the daily Al-Tayar, Othman Mirghani. Several Sudanese businessmen are also hoping for beneficial spinoffs for business and commerce.
Red line
The IMF forecasts a recession of 8.4% in 2020 in Sudan with a very limited rebound next year (0.8%). But these calculations, published in mid-October, do not take into account recent diplomatic developments.
Sunday, Khartoum announced to plan “In the coming weeks (…) the signing of cooperation agreements in the agricultural, commercial, economic, aviation and migration fields” between the two countries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then announced on Twitter a shipment of wheat worth $ 5 million to Sudan and pledged to work with the United States to “Assist the country in its transition”.
But a majority of Sudanese blame their leaders for crossing a red line by betraying “The pan-Arab cause” crystallized around the Palestinians since the creation of Israel in 1948. A poll conducted in October by the Arab Center for Research and Policy found that only 13% of Sudanese polled approved of the establishment of relations with Israel and that 79% were opposed it.
The announcement of standardization is “Contrary to national law and the pan-Arab commitment”, judge Sadek Al-Mahdi, leader of the Umma party.
Sudanese religious leaders were among the first to decry this rapprochement. “We issued a fatwa [avis religieux non contraignant] prohibiting standardization ‘, explained Sheikh Adel Hassan Hamza, secretary general of the main Islamic council.
After the Six-Day War, which in 1967 saw Israel seize the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, in particular, several Arab leaders gathered in Khartoum to adopt a resolution known for its “Three no” : no to peace with Israel, no to its recognition and no to negotiations with the Hebrew state.
Under the Al-Bashir regime, Sudan, accused by Israel of letting arms pass through its territory to Gaza, had been one of the supporters of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas.
Challenges
For the leader of the Pan-Arab Baath Socialist Party, Mohamed Haidar, normalization does not fall within the prerogatives of the transitional government.
An argument invoked in August by Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok himself, while rumors of normalization circulated, and repeated in recent days by the head of diplomacy, Omar Kamar Eldin. The latter said that the standardization agreement would come into effect only after ratification by the legislative power. Yet Sudan still does not have a transitional Parliament.
Born out of a power-sharing between soldiers and civilian representatives of the movement that brought down Al-Bashir, the current government faces several challenges, including that of leading a three-year transition to civilian rule.
Standardization goes “To bring water to the mill of the partisans of the old regime whose interests coincide with those of the Islamist groups”, agrees Jonas Horner, of the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, although, according to him, “The main threat to the stability of Sudan remains, by far, the economy”. Naturally ” careful “, the Prime Minister should strive to “Find consensus and avoid creating deeper divisions”, says the expert.
