Risk of escalation between the United States and Shiite militias in Iraq

Defense Secretary Mark Esper at a press conference from Donald Trump's residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida on December 29.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper at a press conference from Donald Trump's residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida on December 29. Tom Brenner / REUTERS

Tensions between Washington and Tehran are mounting on the Iraqi front. On Sunday, December 29, American F-15 fighters targeted installations by the Hezbollah Brigades, an Iraqi Shiite militia linked to Iran, on the border between Iraq and Syria. At least 25 fighters have been killed, including commanders, and 51 others injured in the Iraqi province of Anbar, in the west of the country, security sources said. Three sites in Iraq and two in Syria, including ammunition depots and command centers, have been targeted, the Pentagon said. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said "Success" these strikes intended for "Weaken the Hezbollah Brigades' ability to carry out future attacks".

"We will not accept that the Islamic Republic of Iran take measures which put the Americans in danger", added the American secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, at the end of a meeting with president Donald Trump in his residence of Mar-a-Lago (Florida), in the presence of the head of the Pentagon and of the general Mark Milley , the Chief of the Defense Staff.

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Washington accuses the Hezbollah Brigades of being responsible for the rocket attack on Friday evening at a base of American soldiers in northern Iraq, which killed an American contractor. A barrage of 36 rockets fell on the K1 base in Kirkuk, north of Baghdad, an area that Kurdistan is disputing to federal authorities, according to an American source.

New escalation

Massive and unprecedentedly precise, the attack on the K1 base marks a new escalation in the threat posed by Iran and its affiliated militias against American interests in Iraq. Several of the unsophisticated attacks that targeted bases where U.S. soldiers or diplomats are stationed in 2019 are blamed by Washington for the Hezbollah Brigades.

The militia, trained and financed by Iran, operates within the Popular Mobilization (MP) units, a paramilitary force integrated into the Iraqi armed forces, and also independently, notably in Syria, where it serves as a supplement to the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. She was the target of several strikes carried out in 2019 against Shiite militia installations close to Iran and imputed to Israel which intends to prevent the transfer of arms from Iran to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

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From the start, the 1st October, from the protest movement in Baghdad and in the Shia South against the Iranian government and the Iranian godfather, attacks on American interests escalated, killing an Iraqi soldier near the American embassy. Washington remained behind in the crisis, but called for an end to the crackdown on the movement, which killed at least 460 people and injured 25,000, and for the organization of early elections.

Destabilized by this unprecedented crisis, the political class united on Sunday to condemn the American strikes against the Hezbollah Brigades. Managing current affairs pending the appointment of a successor, Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi has denounced "A violation of Iraqi sovereignty" and "A dangerous escalation that threatens the security of Iraq and the region".

Reprisals

The continued presence of the 5,200 American soldiers stationed in Iraq since the summer of 2014, at the invitation of the government to assist and train Iraqi forces in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) organization, is in question. Heads of MP units close to Iran, united in the Al-Fatih parliamentary coalition ("conquest", 48 seats out of 329), called for their expulsion.

Since the war against IS, their influence and that of Tehran on the country's political institutions and economy has increased, to the detriment of Washington, whose relations with Baghdad have deteriorated after the unilateral withdrawal from the agreement. on Iranian nuclear power in May 2018, and the reinstatement of sanctions against Tehran.

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Iraq had so far been largely spared from attacks by Iran and its militias against the United States and its allies in the region in response to the policy of the "Maximum pressure" from Washington. The US strikes against the Hezbollah Brigades raise fears that Iraq will become a battleground between Washington and Tehran.

Abu Mahdi Al-Mohandes, the head of Hezbollah’s brigades, and deputy head of MP units, who fought with US forces in Iraq after the 2003 invasion, promised reprisals. "We will carry out additional actions if necessary in order to act for our self-defense and to dissuade militias or Iran" to commit hostile actions, Pentagon chief Mark Esper warned, said he spoke with President Trump "Other options that are on the table".

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