Israel warns of return to Iran nuclear deal

Aviv Kochavi, the chief of staff of the IDF, speaks at a press conference in Tel Aviv on November 12, 2019.

A united front. The Israeli government and the top military hierarchy have been unanimous since Joe Biden arrived at the White House to denounce a return to the terms of the 2015 international Iran nuclear agreement. Admittedly, the new American administration was procrastinating, Wednesday, January 27, on the resumption of a dialogue with Tehran. According to its new head of diplomacy, Antony Blinken, it will wait for Iran to come back to its obligations at first on its own, after two years of gradual acceleration of its nuclear program. But Israel is already showing a hard position, in order to preserve the essence of the policy of “maximum pressure” adopted by Donald Trump against Iran.

Rarely, on Tuesday, Army Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi appeared to be in a posture of mistrust of Washington, saying that “No one has[vait] the slightest doubt that Iran has military nuclear ambitions and plans to use this weapon. Going back to the nuclear deal, or even a similar one with improvements, would be the wrong thing to do ”. At an annual conference of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Kochavi also said he had ordered the military to update its attack scenarios against Iranian facilities.

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In terms of form, this foray by the country’s highest ranking official into the political arena drew criticism in Israel. Kochavi’s former superior, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, who was speaking shortly after him in Tel Aviv, was quick to recall that” he [était] better to have a discreet conversation [avec Washington], behind a closed door (…). I would absolutely not recommend a policy of confrontation with the Americans in the media. “ From Thursday, sources close to the Prime Minister, Benyamin Netanyahu, hastened to recall that the latter preferred to postpone a possible confrontation with the Biden administration, which intends to consult Israel before the resumption of negotiations with Tehran.

Military activism

Basically, nothing in the public estimates of Israeli military intelligence confirms Mr. Kochavi’s assertions that Tehran has changed the meaning of its nuclear program with a possible military dimension: to become a threshold power capable of acquiring a bomb in a short time, without being determined to use it. Finally, Mr. Kochavi surprised by giving a very pessimistic interpretation of the “deal” of 2015, believing that, if Mr. Trump had not gotten out of it, “Iran could have possibly built a bomb, because this agreement did not include restrictions and supervision [capables de ] prevent it. ”

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