The invasion of Ukraine by Russia weakens the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, highly dependent on these two countries for their supply of wheat. While Ukrainian ports are closed, traffic in the Black Sea is disrupted, and grain trade from Russia is at a standstill, the price of wheat rose 23% in February, a record since 2015.
The supply of wheat, and its price, could be permanently affected if the war continues, and under the effect of the sanctions imposed on Moscow. However, in the countries of the region, faced with structural crises, and for some with wars, a rise in the price of bread, or even shortages of this staple food, could lead to renewed social tensions.
Monday, February 28, Egypt withdrew, for the second time since Thursday, a call for tenders for the purchase of wheat after having received only three offers – French and American – at prices it considered too high. . The world’s largest wheat importer, the country of 102 million people still has nine months of reserves. While Egypt has diversified its sources of supply, particularly in Romania, 50% of its wheat imports in 2021 came from Russia and 30% from Ukraine.
Cairo authorities plan to import 3.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2022, up from 5.5 million in 2021, in addition to the 3.5 million tonnes that have been produced locally. The private sector for its part imported 6.9 million tonnes in 2021, according to data cited by the Reuters agency.
Subsidized bread
State wheat reserves are used to provide subsidized bread to 71 million Egyptians. After reducing the weight of the subsidized cake, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouli announced in February that its price – unchanged since 1988 – would be revised upwards. Haunted by the “bread riots” of 1977, and the popular uprising of 2011, the authorities have repeatedly given up on doing so in the face of street anger.
A disruption in supplies or a surge in prices would come at a very delicate time also for Algeria, the world’s fifth largest cereal importer and second largest consumer of wheat in Africa. The country, which depended exclusively on the French market, had begun in recent years to diversify its suppliers by turning to Russia and Ukraine to buy cheaper. Its current reserves cover six months of its demand in a context of global food price inflation and social tensions.
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