Political scientist at the American University of Beirut, Jamil Mouawad is also a researcher at the Arab Reform Initiative (ARI), an independent think tank founded in 2004.
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While the anger of the Lebanese population against its leaders remains strong, only a few thousand people have mobilized to mark the anniversary of the uprising of October 17, 2019. Why did the movement wither away?
The uprising waned in terms of energy and impact even before the Covid-19 outbreak, which resulted in a forced withdrawal. The momentum of October 2019, when the public squares were occupied by protesters, from Tripoli [ville du nord du Liban] in Tire [dans le sud], ran out of steam in January. The problem is not the lack of mobilization, but the absence of a serious political alternative. This movement has failed to produce a program, or even a political discourse. Its main slogan – “All, that means all! “ – initially made it possible to disregard religious communities and parties, but its overly general nature led to a dead end. In addition, no political leadership has been created. The protesters wanted tangible results. After losing confidence in the political class, they lost confidence in street mobilization.
Having declared the bankruptcy of the current system, isn’t that already a success?
There are no objective criteria for determining whether a social movement is successful, unless it results in a political transition. However, until now, Lebanon has neither a transitional or independent government nor a rescue plan. Among the notable changes, the 2019 uprising was able to refocus the political discourse on the country’s problems, unlike the leaders who still pose the equation in regional terms. We have thus been able to talk about electricity, corruption, public space… The dissatisfaction of citizens with the political class, until then contained in the private space, has swept over the public square. However, there was no revolution, no break with the past.
Various groups and personalities have emerged. Why does a union struggle to be established?
The movement gave birth to a hundred groups, endowed with political will but lacking vision. For example, we want to eliminate political confessionalism, but how, then, should we proceed? By following the deconfessionalisation, in stages, as provided for by the Taëf agreements [en 1989, qui ont ouvert la voie à la fin de la guerre civile] ? Or by imposing a secular state? We want public electricity 24 hours a day, but how do we get there? Some advocate privatization, others reject it… It is not just a question of protesting. After October 17 [2019], the space is organized. In Beirut, everyone has pitched their tent, made their speech. This space reflected the division, more than a unity between these groups. Many initiatives have been carried out, but without consensus on the major issues.
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