DecryptionThe discoveries of gas fields since 2009 have heightened tensions between Cyprus, Greece and Turkey, which were very high during the summer. But the exploitation of hydrocarbons also triggered discreet cooperation between Egypt and Israel.
Take a place torn with military tensions, add a strong smell of gas: there is a good chance that the situation will escalate. It also happens that pragmatism prevails over old antagonisms. In all cases, the presence of hydrocarbons is likely to upset the situation … The discoveries, since 2009, of gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean could have been a blessing for this tormented basin. Are not the estimated reserves there comparable to those of extremely wealthy Norway? ” [Ces] discoveries have the potential to change history, wrote, in 2013, the former German Secretary of State for Defense Friedbert Pflüger, then director of the European Center for Energy and Resource Security (Eucers) at King’s College London. They could bring prosperity to Israel, Cyprus and Turkey, or plunge the region, already in the grip of the Turkish-Cypriot conflict and the war in Syria, into an even deeper crisis. “
The development of deep or very deep water drilling technology, combined with the tenacity of a handful of oil and gas companies, has made it possible to reach these hitherto unexplored areas. However, the effective – and very costly – exploitation of these deposits will be based above all on the establishment of delicate geopolitical balances in this area ranging from Cyprus to Egypt, via Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Mediterranean Sea
Levant Sea
Black Sea
Sea
Aegean
Idku
Damietta
Sandzak
of Alexandretta
2020
2020
2003
2010
2007
2011
2011
Turkish Stream
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
Baku-Tbilisi-
Erzurum
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The presence of gas revives competition …
Main gas fields
Gas pipelines
Transnational gas pipeline project
Potential gas resources
Port terminal for the import and / or export of liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Gas export
Member country of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, an energy cooperation body created in January 2019, which isolates Turkey
Transport of Russian hydrocarbons through Turkey
… In a region where maritime borders are not clearly demarcated…
Theoretical maritime border, based on the principle of equidistance
Maritime border defined by a bilateral agreement (date of signature)
Border defined by Turkey by an unrecognized bilateral agreement
Disputed maritime area
Block 9 gas exploitation, source of tensions between Lebanon and Israel
Signatory country of the Montego Bay Convention on the Law of the Sea
Turkish exploratory and military maneuvers in maritime areas claimed by neighbors
… and where geopolitical tensions are already strong
Combat zone in 2020
Division of Cyprus, since the Turkish invasion of the north of the island in 1974
Division of Cyprus, since the Turkish invasion of the north of the island in 1974
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), State not recognized by the international community
Sources: Geopolitical Atlas of the Oceans, Technip, 2017; Marineregions.org; Gas Infrastructure Europe; NASA; Acled; The world
Ankara’s Strokes
It is the name of the Greek goddess of love who was chosen to name the natural gas field discovered in southern Cyprus in 2011 by the Texan oil group Noble Energy. After “Aphrodite”, the irresistible nymph “Calypso” emerged, the name given to another exploration block drilled by the Italian group ENI, with the support of Total and the American ExxonMobil. These fields may well be promising, their massive exploitation is not about to begin off this split island, since the Turkish invasion of 1974, between a southern entity, member of the European Union (EU), and an entity north recognized by Turkey alone. Optimistic spirits – and oil companies – however hoped that the prospect of enrichment would encourage the two parties to reach an agreement, after the failure of the last referendum, in 2004, on the reunion of the island.
“Turkey has not found any significant reserves in its waters. So it seeks to expand its EEZ, in the hope of finding hydrocarbons, and to maintain its regional influence. »Alessandro Bacci, consultant at IHS Markit
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