Humanitarian disaster, risk of military escalation, political equation not found: all the alarms are activated in north-west Syria, in the province of Idlib, the last area which still escapes the control of the Damascus regime, supported by its Russian sponsors and Iranians. The refugee camps – 900,000 people thrown on the roads since the beginning of December – are overcrowded, not far from the Turkish border. Negative temperatures and precarious sanitary conditions contribute to the absolute urgency.
In this dramatic context, while Damascus continues its offensive, the end of the week was marked by contacts between Chancellor Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, on the one hand, and the Turkish and Russian leaders, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Poutine , on the other hand. Europeans spoke of the need for a "Political solution", which is both obvious and wishful thinking. “The two sides are talking to each other but the confrontation continues. The point is, they can't do it without us, we explain at the Elysée Palace. We are not immune to a skid. "
"Military escalation"
The idea of a four summit in Istanbul is discussed between the capitals, Erdogan even evoking, this weekend, the date of March 5, not confirmed. This Turkish eagerness is interpreted as an admission of weakness. "The main issue is a ceasefire, but above all the place where the line of control would passsays Joost Hiltermann, Middle East director at the International Crisis Group (ICG). If the Turks prevailed, it would be on the basis of the Sochi agreement (creating in September 2018 a demilitarized zone). The Syrian regime is expected to withdraw from the areas around the Turkish observation points. The other likely compromise would be more unfavorable to Turkey, with the Damascus-Aleppo highway clearly under the control of the Syrian regime. "
In the logic of Damascus and Moscow, there is little reason to stop. Again, Russia blocked – with China – a Security Council resolution on December 20 to allow for the organization of cross-border humanitarian aid. The UN, on the other hand, is increasing its appeal for emergency aid funds from $ 330 million to $ 500 million (462 million euros).
Mme Merkel and Mr. Macron called Vladimir Putin to "The immediate cessation of hostilities and not to hinder access to humanitarian aid for populations in need", said the Elysee Palace on February 20. The hand extended to Russia by France, formalized at the Fort de Brégançon in August 2019, had no effect on the Syrian dossier. Since December, Moscow has fully supported the Damascus forces in its offensive, at the cost of indiscriminate bombing. In Brussels, on February 21, on the sidelines of the European Council, Mr. Macron worried about the risk of news "Migration crisis" and D'"Military escalation", when sixteen Turkish soldiers were killed in February.
