China may have ended the one-child policy introduced in 1978 in 2015, but nothing helps: the number of births continues to decline. According to figures published Friday, January 17, by the National Bureau of Statistics, 14.65 million were recorded in 2019, the lowest rate since 1949, except for 1961, year marked by the ravages of famine. . In 2018, there were 15.2 million births. The result: their number per 1,000 inhabitants was only 10.48, compared to 10.94 in 2018 and 12.43 in 2017.
It is expensive to have a child. You need bigger accommodation and if possible give him private lessons from an early age so that he has a chance to join a good university. However, like the number of deaths (9.98 million in 2019), the population continues to increase. It would have exceeded the threshold of 1.4 billion (1.40005), according to official figures.
This issue is politically major. This figure of 1.4 billion allows "To temporarily put an end to speculation that India will become the most populous country in the world", Write the China Daily Saturday January 18
Questioning the official figures
As long as China remains more populated than its main rivals, everything is fine. But is it so safe? From deep in Wisconsin, Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Madison University, has questioned official figures for several years. According to him, far from growing, the Chinese population is decreasing. "In fact, it was only 1.279 billion in 2019 instead of the 1.4 billion announced", he estimates in a note sent to the editors as of the publication of the official figures. According to him, the number of births declared is not reliable. Hospitals would tend to overstate their importance in reaching more money, and so have families who try to have multiple birth certificates to receive more social assistance.
It is true that we regularly discover officials who have sold hundreds of blank birth certificates: on the Internet, a certificate seems to be negotiated between 30,000 and 40,000 yuan (between 4,000 and 5,200 euros). For Yi Fuxian, the most reliable criterion remains the census. While, for example, the Bureau of Statistics continues to claim that there were 17.7 million births in 2000, Yi Fuxian notes that the census that year indicated 14.08 million births, that the 2010 census announced 14.4 million people aged 10 years and that of 2015, 13.57 million people 15 years. For Yi Fuxian, "The 14.08 million births obtained by the 2000 census are roughly correct and the 17.7 million announced by the Bureau of Statistics are very overestimated".