Trump's plan "draws the very distant prospect of a rump Palestinian state"

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and United States President Donald Trump in Washington on January 28, 2020. MANDEL NGAN / AFP

Diplomacy specialist at World, Piotr Smolar answered questions from Internet users about the project of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, for a "Israeli-Palestinian peace".

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Don Lope: What is the binding scope of this project? Can it be imposed on the Palestinian side?

This plan has no legal value. It will not be applied to the letter. But it’s not his vocation. The Trump administration has claimed, from its inception, to blast all the foundations of international consensus on a negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We are in 2020, multilateralism is at half mast, coups de force dominate. Washington first unilaterally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, then the annexation of the Golan Heights, then officially stopped viewing the colonial project, the expansion of Jewish communities in the West Bank, as illegal.

This plan is a fundamental step in this process. It is a question of validating, and even encouraging, the project of annexation, knowing in advance that the Palestinian side would condemn the document as a whole. "The State Less", conditioned, which is offered to Palestinians, and the above-ground and virtual economic incentives – $ 50 billion (45 billion euros) promised with the third-country checkbook – are mirages.

The problem for the Palestinians is their loneliness. They have no credible alternative today, internal or international, to cling to, capable of mobilizing the population. The depression is deep, and the destinies of Gaza and the West Bank more divergent than ever.

Hakim: Why is this plan proposed now? Was it planned for a long time? Or is it simply a matter of Trump positioning himself clearly for the upcoming US elections?

This plan has been in preparation for more than two years, its publication has already been announced and postponed so often that many doubted its very existence. We can also consider that its implementation began before its publication, with the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the end of any condemnation of colonization.

American motivations are political and ideological. Donald Trump obviously has an electoral interest in filling the evangelical audience, already overjoyed by the recognition of Jerusalem. This electorate passes him all his outrageousness and his scandals, he reasons in millennia. Next, the president's entourage – his ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, or his son-in-law Jared Kushner – is made up of pro-Israeli ideologists, determined to bring an end to the Oslo era, named after the peace signed in 1993. They want to change all the parameters, for the benefit of the strongest, based, according to them, on the "Facts from the field".

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AR: Was the Palestinian Authority consulted in the development of this "Peace Plan" by the Americans?

The Palestinian Authority has ceased all political contact with Washington after the Trump administration's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in December 2017. Since then, it has called for the creation of a new multilateral framework for discussion, with the France, Russia, China, etc. In vain.

Washington's reaction to this disqualification has been financially punitive. Funds allocated to the United Nations assistance mission for the Palestinian refugees have been cut, as have other budget lines for the Palestinian Authority. Washington counted on the friendly pressure of the Arab countries on Ramallah to force Abbas to resume discussions. And this with an obvious ignorance and contempt for the Palestinian dynamics, the psychological springs and the aspirations of this population. We find this form of paternalistic neglect in the remarks made yesterday by Donald Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

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Nels: International reactions are more than timid about President Trump's announcements, despite the blatant imbalance of the proposals. How to explain it?

The reactions of Europeans are particularly interesting to note. We find exactly the same words at Quai d'Orsay and Brussels. To summarize : “We are studying the plan, but we remain committed to the two-state solution. "

Why this absence of criticism, or distancing from the United States' unilateral coup? We can make assumptions. European diplomats may view the Trump plan as stillborn, for reasons related to both its content and the political context, with the Israeli elections in early March and the explosive implications of a real annexation. Suddenly, diplomats would say that it is useless, on this additional front, to enter into confrontation with the American administration.

But this analysis is shortsighted. The Europeans, who are very divided over their attitude towards Israel, have so far adopted a simple policy of differentiation between Israeli territory and the settlements. Hence the labeling recommendations for products made in these colonies, for the attention of European consumers. But what if Israel implements annexation, and its civil laws apply directly to the settlements, which then become an integral part of its territory, even if it is not recognized internationally?

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Bob: Will the Palestinians keep an army?

Palestinians cannot keep an army. they do not have any. The prism through which Donald Trump's plan must be seen is political, religious and security. Political because it is about validation and coverage of annexation projects in the West Bank. Religious, because the plan evokes at length the question of Jewish roots in "Judea and Samaria", or even addresses the question of access for all believers to the Temple Mount (esplanade of the Mosques). Totally explosive subject for the Palestinian street. Finally, safe, to come back to your question, because it draws the very distant prospect of a rump Palestinian State, without real territorial continuity, without possibility of control of its accesses or its air space, and of course demilitarized. Security control over Israel would be complete between the sea and the Jordan.

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K. A.: What risks would arise from a change in the status of the Esplanade des Mosques?

This is one of the most explosive paragraphs in the document prepared by the Trump administration. On the one hand, the authors say they are in favor of preserving the status quo governing access to the Temple Mount (esplanade of the Mosques for Muslims). The Waqf, a pious Jordanian foundation, manages it, apart from security issues. But in the same movement, the Trump plan evokes the right of believers to "All faiths" to pray on site.

However, the status quo stipulates that Jewish visitors cannot do so, they go up to the site among tourists, at specific times. There is also an important point to note: until the 1990s, there was a rabbinical consensus in Israel to ban Jews from going to the Temple Mount, due to uncertainty about the exact location of the Temple.

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It was the Messianic right that made this access, in the name of equal rights between believers, a political subject. Netanyahu knows full well that the esplanade is arguably the most sensitive place in the Middle East. We saw the strong reaction from the Palestinian street, when metal control gates had been set up by the Israeli police at the entrance reserved for Muslims.

If annexation of settlements remains a fairly abstract subject for many Palestinians, because they do not understand how it would change their daily lives, the Al-Aqsa Mosque remains the most powerful rallying slogan in this atomized society.

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