The declarations of good intentions of the delegations of the government of Kabul and the Taliban before their return to Doha, Tuesday, January 5, for the continuation of the Afghan peace talks, after three weeks of hiatus, have fizzled. A few hours were enough for the masks to fall, raising fears of the worst for the future of a national reconciliation process opened with great fanfare on September 12, 2020.
The signing, on February 29, 2020, also in Doha, of a pre-peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban insurgents, excluding the authorities in Kabul, should however, in theory, make it possible to reunite the enemy Afghan brothers and launch the American withdrawal by May 2021, after twenty years of presence. But, almost a year later, it is not. The Taliban, in a position of strength, pretend to argue but in reality do not concede much to a discredited and weakened legitimate regime.
Serious signs of weakness
The first round of negotiations, from September to December, was chaotic and episodic. It only resulted in an agreement on the modalities of the discussion. These new exchanges must now deal with the substance: what will Afghanistan look like in peace? How to integrate the Taliban into the political game? Should we set up a transitional government during the discussions? Can we negotiate when violence is still raging and affects, according to the International Red Cross, half of the country?
The two sides do not agree on anything and international observers question the very possibility of a dialogue. The Kabul delegation pleads for a permanent ceasefire and intends to keep the current regime chaired by Ashraf Ghani during the talks. The insurgents do not want either because they deny the latter any legitimacy. The head of the Afghan intelligence services, Ahmad Zia Siraj, told Parliament on Monday that “The Taliban plan to drag out discussions until the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan in May”.
Worse, the terms of the pre-peace agreement, the only framework imposing this inter-Afghan dialogue, show serious signs of weakness. On Monday, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid denounced a violation of the agreement after US strikes against insurgents in the south of the country. A representative of the American forces, Colonel Sonny Leggett, assured that they were “Defensive” and did not constitute a violation of the commitments made by the two parties to cease all violence against each other. The Afghan forces being excluded from this agreement.
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