Tribune. The presidential election in the United States is marked by an intensity which the exceptional turnout alone testifies to, which reached 145 million voters (15 million more than in 2016). Joe Biden’s advance in the popular vote is clear, but it should not obscure the fact that Donald Trump’s voters were strongly mobilized, because of the stake in the ballot.
According to the More in Common think tank, more than 80% of citizens considered this election to be “The most important of their life”. It is therefore right that we describe a deeply polarized America. We would be mistaken, however, to see in it the replica of the cleavages that are familiar to us in Europe and in France, and in particular the cleavage “Open / closed”, or “ winners / losers from globalization ” which may have served as a key – sometimes reductive – of the presidential and European elections in France.
Similarities exist with the polarizations that we observe in France, and in particular the accentuation of the cleavage according to the degree of urbanization. The contrast between the city vote and the peri-urban and rural vote (Biden wins with 60% in cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, Trump dominates with 54% the vote in small towns and countryside) is familiar to us. This should not lead to reading the result of the American presidential election with a French reading grid.
Trump’s electorate, not a bitter or unhappy social body
The strong ethnic dimension of the vote remains a specificity. The gender divide shows the persistence of a clear Democratic domination in the vote for women since the 1990s. Biden wins 56% of the female electorate but is on par with Trump (48% against 49%) among men. Such a divide does not exist in France, which invites us to be wary of any mechanical projection, and in particular that which would consist, with the French fractures in mind, in making the Trump vote the expression of the anger of a group. downgraded and frustrated social worker seeking revenge in an anti-system leader.
Certainly, Joe Biden’s difficulties in reconquering the key states of the “rust belt” other than a hair’s breadth confirm the existence in the support of the outgoing president of a worried workers’ electorate. But the half of America that voted for Donald Trump is far from being reduced to this profile. 70% of Donald Trump’s voters declare an income above $ 50,000 (they represent less than 60% of the Biden electorate), and the Republican candidate is clearly ahead of the lowest incomes.
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