On Thursday March 19, Michel Barnier, the chief Brexit negotiator for the European Union (EU) announced on Twitter that he had been "Tested positive". "I find myself as good as possible, strictly confined to my home", explained the Frenchman in a video, where he appeared fit, in a burgundy sweater, in front of a large wooden bookcase. Friday March 20, it was announced by a Johnson government spokesperson that David Frost, chief negotiator on the British side, "Shows symptoms" from Covid-19 and "Isolated himself".
Suffice to say that Brexit is also in quarantine even if nobody, neither in Brussels nor in London, recognizes it officially yet. "If we are able to hold this daily press briefing, I don't see why the Brexit negotiations could not continue" : a few days ago, in the Commission's press room, Eric Mamer, the institution's spokesperson, used a pirouette to affirm that despite the coronavirus crisis, discussions on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and Europe were continuing their course.
"The spirits are not there"
Friday, March 20, the "midday", as this meeting between the journalists and the communicants of the European executive is called, could not be held and turned into videoconference. And no one in the institutions dares to make a forecast on the outcome of the negotiations between London and Brussels. "They are a bit quarantined", recognizes a diplomat. " Not because of Michel Barnier ”, he hurries to continue. But "On both sides, the spirits are not there ", Continues this diplomat.
In addition, since physical meetings are no longer possible, no one has found the magic formula to concretely lead the negotiations. After a first round in Brussels during which the Europeans and the British did not shake hands, they should have resumed in London on Wednesday March 18. Unthinkable of course in these times of containment and pandemic.
The videoconference solution was well considered before being finally excluded. With more than a hundred people on each side, the exercise was to be perilous, even dividing the assembly into sub-groups, according to the subjects. "Negotiations are of course meetings, but also behind-the-scenes discussions and that, by videoconference, is not possible", says a senior European official.
Brussels has published a draft agreement with the United Kingdom, London has done the same. And each of the parties analyzes the other’s proposals. "We should be able to give our analysis in a few days", says one in the entourage of Michel Barnier. But then ? Will the pandemic challenge Boris Johnson's repeatedly reaffirmed desire to leave the EU by December 31? And not to ask for additional time, what the divorce agreement concluded last year allows him to do, if he wishes to do so before June 30?
The cost of isolation
"Even if an agreement is reached, leaving the internal market will have a cost for the United Kingdom, since it will have to re-establish border controls. It is not certain that the British economy, which will suffer in this coronavirus crisis, like all other economies, will also be able to afford the cost of isolation. ", comments a European source. In London, the subject of "Brexit", which has occupied most of the news in recent years, has completely disappeared from radar since the start of this week. And most people do not consider an agreement realistic before the end of 2020.
However, Boris Johnson has yet to clarify his intentions. Questioned on Wednesday March 18 at the end of his now daily press conference, the British Prime Minister contented himself with ensuring that"There is legislation in place, I have no intention of changing it", referring to a law passed in Westminster in January, limiting the transition period to the end of 2020.
