Harsh therapy or belief in the virtues of diplomacy, for lack of an alternative: Europeans are trying to keep the Iranian nuclear deal alive. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) was upset by the withdrawal of the United States in February 2018, which broke the confidence necessary to achieve this rare success in terms of multilateral diplomacy. As of summer 2019, it has led to a series of calculated and spread violations by Tehran of its commitments. The fifth stage, consisting of lifting all operational limits on the production of enriched uranium in early January, prompted Europeans to react.
Tuesday, January 14, in a joint statement, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the E3 group, reaffirm their desire to save the JCPoA and not to subscribe to "The campaign to exert maximum pressure against Iran" wanted by Donald Trump. But they also announced that they had "More choice, given Iran’s actions", than to refer the matter to the Joint Commission under the dispute settlement mechanism, in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 36 of the JCPoA. "With the activation of the mechanism, we want to open a political space for dialogue, while remaining in agreement", sums up a French diplomatic source.
This very thick paragraph 36 provides for a long journey until a possible seizure of the Security Council and a reinstatement of pre-JCPoA sanctions. There is nothing automatic about this conclusion. But the political stake has taken precedence over the question of cogs. The more so as three Iranian crises are answered: nuclear, the internal protest revived by the lies on the Ukrainian Boeing shot down on January 8, and finally the confrontation with the United States.
Diplomatic consultations
Since summer 2019, Tehran has continued its gradual escalation: crossing the limit of 300 kg of low-enriched uranium, enrichment beyond the threshold of 3.67% (today around 4.5%, according to a source French), violation of the limits imposed on research and development. In early November, Iran announced the resumption of enrichment activities at the Fordo underground site. A report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, due in late February, is expected to examine the implementation of the latest Iranian announcements on January 5. Tehran has decided to no longer limit the number of centrifuges.
