The recovery will be timid and fragile. This is the teaching of the World Bank which, in its forecasts published Wednesday January 8, puts on a growth of the world economy of 2,5% in 2020. This marks a slight acceleration compared to 2,4% of 2019 , the year in which it experienced its worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis.
This slight rebound will only be driven by a tight group of large emerging countries, such as Argentina or Turkey, where an improvement in the economic situation is looming. Rich countries – namely the United States, Japan and the euro area – are all expected to see growth slow on average to 1.4% in 2020, from 1.6% in 2019, and developing and emerging countries are expected to decrease from 3.5% in 2019 to 4.1% in 2020.
Other forecasters share this cautious optimism, like the Oxford Economics firm, which claims, in a study published Monday, January 6, that "Signs of stabilizing global growth at the start of 2020 have allayed fears of a slowdown turning into a general recession." The worst should therefore be avoided.
The Washington institution explains this by the rebound in manufacturing production and the easing of trade tensions. After the truce signed in December 2019 between the United States and China, which ended two years of tariff war, the two powers returned to the negotiating table.
Pessimism about the American economy
International trade growth is expected to climb to 1.9% in 2020, from 1.4% in 2019, provided "That the tensions between China and the United States do not worsen again", says the World Bank. Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis, however puts the impact of the trade war into perspective "In a global economy where growth is fueled 90% by the service sector".
The World Bank is also pessimistic about the health of the US economy. She worries about " weakness " of its manufacturing sector and a reduced impact of tax cuts and public spending decided by Donald Trump since the start of his mandate. According to her, the United States is the rich country where the decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) should be the most brutal (1.8% in 2020 against 2.3% in 2019). A pessimism that Mr. Artus does not share, who draws attention to the rise in the participation rate in the active population, a sign of the vitality of the economy.
