Members of Likoud, the political party of Benjamin Netanyahu, voted Thursday, December 26, to appoint their new leader in a primary called for by the main rival of Israeli Prime Minister Gideon Saar.
Polling stations opened at 9 a.m. local time (8 a.m. in Paris) and the approximately 116,000 right-wing party members have until 11 p.m. to express their choice. At 3 p.m., the participation rate was 18%, depending on the training. The results are not expected to be released until Friday morning.
The winner of the primary will have the difficult task of leading the Likud campaign for the legislative elections in March, the third in less than a year. Benjamin Netanyahu voted at his home in Jerusalem, where an urn had been transported. Gideon Saar, arriving at the office where he voted near Tel Aviv, estimated that it was"A fateful day" for the party and for Israel. "We can win today and take a new path that will allow us to form a strong and stable government", did he declare.
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At the head of the party since 1993
The primary, which is a test for the popularity of Netanyahu in his own ranks, is unlikely to be won by MP Gideon Saar, 53. But if it leads to a close result, it will be a heavy blow for the Prime Minister, at the head of the party since 1993 – apart from a six-year parenthesis when the party was led by Ariel Sharon (1999-2005) – and head of the most sustainable government in the history of Israel.
After the early elections in April, then those of September, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor the centrist Benny Gantz – whose parties arrived neck and neck twice – failed to rally 61 deputies, threshold of the parliamentary majority to form a government. The president, Reuven Rivlin, had to entrust this task to the Parliament itself, which did not succeed.
For pollster Stephan Miller, "No matter what percentage Mr. Saar gets" :
“It will be the first time in ten years that right-wing voters have explicitly expressed their desire to get rid of Netanyahu. "
According to him, if the Prime Minister’s rival receives more than a third of the votes, "This will be a significant blow to Netanyahu".
Play the unifier card
On November 21, Mr. Nétanyahou, 70, was charged with corruption, fraud and breach of trust. He denounced "False accusations". Rivals within Likud then called for a primary to appoint a successor. Mr. Saar was a minister several times, before putting his political career on hold in 2014, after being dismissed by Mr. Netanyahu.
If Mr. Saar is even more marked on the right than the Prime Minister, especially on the Palestinian question, he is playing the rallying card beyond his own camp, focusing on his relations with leaders of other formations.
Without saying it openly, he also bet on the fact that he is not accused by justice, the Blue-White party ("Kahol Lavan" in Hebrew, the colors of the Israeli flag) of Benny Gantz refusing to share the power with an indicted head of government.
"There is a change in the air"
According to recent polls, a Likud led by Mr. Saar would win fewer seats than if he were led by Mr. Netanyahu. However, under Mr. Saar, Likud voters could turn to other right-wing parties, those who had not reached the 3.5% threshold to enter parliament (Knesset) in previous elections. In this case, the conservative camp, all formations combined, could be strengthened and potentially reach the threshold of the parliamentary majority necessary to form a government.
Unpublished fact, personalities of the party, like the president of the Parliament, Yuli Edelstein, do not publicly support any candidate of the primary. According to Ofer Zalzberg, analyst for International Crisis Group, such neutrality would have been unthinkable a few years ago: "There is a change in the air. "
For Mr. Netanyahu, it is essential to remain in office: Israeli law provides that any minister who is prosecuted by crime must resign, but this does not apply to the Prime Minister.
