Joe Biden’s victory in the November 3 election ended a marathon that began at the end of 2018 with the announcement of the first candidacies in the Democratic camp. It paved the way for the transition, a period during which the president-elect composes his team and prepares for his entry into office. Generally, the process goes without a hitch, and the transition between George W. Bush and Barack Obama, in 2008-2009, is exemplary in this respect, while that of Donald Trump in 2016 was more chaotic: barely elected, he had fired the leader of the transition team and put all the documents she had prepared in the trash.
But on January 20, 2021, at noon EST, Joe Biden will take office in an unprecedented climate: despite the launch of a mass vaccination campaign, the world’s leading economic power continues to register up to 250,000 case of Covid-19 in twenty-four hours – Wednesday, December 16 – and the pandemic which left more than 300,000 dead there plunged the country into recession. Above all, President Donald Trump has gone to great lengths to sabotage this process.
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Republicans accept Joe Biden’s victory
It was a formality, but it did not go without saying, given the attitude of the elected representatives of the Republican Party: the 538 electors who make up the electoral college met, state by state, and confirmed, Monday 14 December, that Joe Biden was indeed elected 46e President of the United States. After this vote, the ballots of the voters will be sent to Washington, where the Senate must receive them before December 23.
Then, on January 6, 2021, a joint session of Congress resulting from the November 3 election must meet to count the votes of the electoral college. The President of the Senate, Vice President Mike Pence, will preside over the session and declare the winner. This count is the last formal step to make official the results of the presidential election before the investiture of January 20.
No objections should come from the House of Representatives, controlled by the Democrats, and Republicans who control the Senate should also no longer oppose the outcome of the election. After a dozen Republican senators before him, Mitch McConnell, their leader, finally recognized the defeat of Donald Trump: “The Electoral College has spoken, so today I would like to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden”, said the Kentucky elected official.
A parasitic transition
The transition is an eleven-week sprint designed to organize the activities of 2.1 million federal employees, 2 million military personnel, 800,000 postal service agents and a federal budget of $ 4.8 trillion. But the General Services of the American Administration (GSA) had to wait for almost three weeks for the green light from President Trump to give access to the files to Joe Biden’s team: on January 20, the Biden administration must not discover them, it must be operational.
Indeed, these wasted weeks can pay for themselves: the report of the Commission on the attacks of September 11, underlined that the delay caused by the chaotic victory of George W. Bush in 2000, then the accelerated transition, weakened the country in the face. to the attacks of September 11, 2001.
“The late transition from President Clinton to George W. Bush has led to failure of national security preparation”, noted the report, adding that “This waste of time has hampered the new administration in identifying, recruiting, authorizing and obtaining confirmation by the Senate of the main appointees”. “A new administration means around 4,000 appointments, with around 2,100 people who will have access to classified information Kathryn Tenpas of the Brookings Institution recalled during a transition debate on December 14.
However, the obstacles sown by Donald Trump do not seem to hinder the transition. Joe Biden has known the White House as vice president for eight years, and knows how it works. And being well aware of the carelessness of the Trump administration – not all the functions of the administration are occupied due to the exceptional turn-over imposed by the 45e president -, the Democratic team largely anticipated the transition, as soon as Joe Biden was certain of obtaining the nomination of the Democratic Party. The White House Transition Project, a non-partisan organization that assists administrations during transitions, even notes that the Biden team – more experienced, more feminine and more diverse – is ahead of its predecessors in its composition.
But after the first appointments which are expected to receive Senate approval, the Biden team is on hold. She must wait for the result of the election of the two senators from Georgia on January 5. A victory for the Republican candidates would prevent the nominations of personalities deemed too radical, close to Bernie Sanders. Because the transition also underlines the tensions within the Democratic Party: the progressive wing claims its share of the victory and places in the new administration, but nothing is assured yet.
A nomination like no other
The inauguration of the new American president has traditionally been a codified political spectacle in which solemn moments alternate with passages lighter. On January 20, 2017, Barack Obama shook hands with President Donald Trump, who boarded the Presidential Marine One helicopter before taking off over the Capitol. Then Donald Trump was invested in front of some 250,000 people.
But in 2021, that of Joe Biden should not look like anything known. The team in charge of the ceremony was presented on November 30, but on December 15, they warned: due to the health risk, they are asking the public not to go to Washington.
The ceremony should combine the elements of a traditional inauguration with virtual moments, on television and on the Internet. The nomination committee will raise private funds to fund “virtual events” that will echo this year’s Democratic convention, reports the New York Times. Mr Biden is expected to be sworn in and deliver a speech on the Western Front of the Capitol, opposite the National Mall, but in a small group, with a stage designed to accommodate 1,600 spectators respecting social distancing rules and wearing masks. The rest of the usual program – lunch at the Capitol, parades and balls, etc. – should be canceled.
The uncertainty about Donald Trump’s behavior
Since November 3, Donald Trump has been living in a parallel reality. Still not having conceded his defeat, he keeps asking for the verification of the signatures on the November 3 ballots, when he does not denounce, without proof, “ massive fraud “ to the election. Before the Electoral College meeting, he has tweeted, on December 12, that “THE FIGHT IS ONLY BEGINNING !!! “.
On November 27, in the traditional Thanksgiving address to members of the United States Armed Forces, he declared that he would only leave the White House if the electoral college voted for Joe Biden. But he immediately added: “I think a lot will happen between now and January 20th. Many things. “
Finally, he continues to harbor doubts about his participation in the ceremony on January 20. When Fox News asked him if he was going to attend – as tradition and protocol dictate – Donald Trump kicked in: “I don’t want to talk about this”, he replied. Instead, he plans to organize a rally around the time of the Washington ceremony to kick off his 2024 campaign, parasitize Joe Biden’s nomination and force the Republican Party to follow him.
Before him, only three outgoing presidents – John Adams in 1801, his son John Quincy Adams in 1829 and Andrew Johnson in 1869 – refused to attend the inauguration of their successor.
