Correspondent of World in the Middle East, Benjamin Barthe analyzes the springs of the diplomatic crisis between France and several Arab countries following President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks on the caricatures of Mohammed. For the journalist, these tensions constitute “A textbook case of the impossibility of communication”.
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Arianouchka: Hello, were these calls for boycott officially supported by states?
To my knowledge, no state has formally called for this boycott, apart from Turkey, through Erdogan. But behind the scenes there may be calculations, implied consent. In the Gaza Strip, held by the Islamists of Hamas, the agitation against France is a convenient diversion from internal problems, the economic and social stagnation, the lack of reconciliation with the enemy brothers of Fatah.
In 2005, at the start of this bloody series of cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, it was not the Muslim Brotherhood, but the Egyptian government itself, under the presidency at the time of Hosni Mubarak, which had seized the Organization of the Islamic Conference (now the Organization for Islamic Cooperation) and the Arab League.
The attacks on European embassies in Damascus, Syria, had obviously been secretly organized by the regime of Bashar Al-Assad. The crisis has been a boon for these autocratic regimes to present themselves as a bulwark against Islamist chaos, especially as the European Union pressured them to adopt democratic reforms.
Vachequiboude: Hello, what is the feeling of the inhabitants of the countries of the Middle East towards these caricatures? Is it more measured than that of their leaders or their religious representatives?
The vast majority of residents disapprove of these drawings, and some find them offensive, even insulting. The vast majority do not understand why France has erected this question so thorny, so explosive in their eyes, into a totem pole, a principle that does not suffer any discussion, the emblem par excellence of freedom of expression.
There is a textbook case of the impossibility of communication. Two sacrosanct values clash, on the one hand, respect for religion, and on the other, respect for freedom of expression. And, for the moment, except in a liberal fringe of the Arab world, at odds with the religious, this opposition seems insurmountable. Now, disapproval obviously does not mean support for violence, extremism, etc. The vast majority of the inhabitants of the Arab world also disapprove of the act of the murderer of Samuel Paty.
Two birds with one stone : Isn’t this story of cartoons an excuse to, first, allow certain leaders to force populations to consume more local products and, second, to reduce French influence in some of these states?
No, I don’t think we should imagine such a devious project. In Qatar, the agitation against Emmanuel Macron should be seen as an echo of the execrable state of relations between the French president and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since its Gulf neighbors (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) put it under a diplomatic and economic embargo, Qatar has placed itself under the protection, if not the tutelage, of Turkey, which has opened a military base. on its territory. Without condoning Mr. Erdogan’s ad hominem attacks against Mr. Macron, Doha is required to show a form of solidarity with its ally in this affair.
There are also local factors. Qatari society is conservative, like all those in the Gulf, it includes an Islamist fringe, of various persuasions, to which the government leaves a certain room for maneuver, in exchange for their legalism. This is also the case in Kuwait, even more so, since this emirate is the most pluralist monarchy in the Gulf. Islamists, especially the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, are represented in Parliament and do not hesitate to raise their voices on issues that are close to their hearts.
This is not the case in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, where the Brotherhood of the Muslim Brotherhood is classified as terrorist and where the Islamist mainstream – with the exception of the pietist Salafists, who do not get involved in politics – is closely watched. . Many of its representatives are currently in prison. If you add to this the fact that Erdogan is the bête noire of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, you understand why we have not seen boycott movements on French products in these two monarchies.
Raymond31: Beyond the ideological and nationalist battle, what can justify such an escalation on Erdogan’s part?
There seems to be a battle for the religious magisterium, for supremacy over the umma, the community of Muslim faithful. Erdogan is taking advantage of this crisis to try to weaken Saudi Arabia, the cradle of Islam and historic leader of the Sunni camp.
Q: Are those calling for the boycott likely to face legal consequences, or economic retaliation?
What they risk in the first place is a backlash from the local authorities, that is to say a form of police repression, if the authorities, after having de facto authorized these mood swings, decide that ‘it is now in their best interests to stop them. The health crisis also facilitates the management of this anti-French fever.
In Kuwait, a call was made to demonstrate against the French position, in front of the Kuwaiti Parliament, but the police banned the rally in the name of the fight against the coronavirus. The decision outraged the organizers, who argued on social media that the diwaniya, the fairs where Kuwaitis meet to discuss politics, continue unhindered.
x: What consequences for French people living in the Middle East?
None at the moment. The French embassies in Kuwait and Qatar assured French nationals on the spot that they were in contact with the local authorities to ensure their safety as well as that of French diplomatic influence and companies established there.
€€€: What will be the economic impact of this boycott for France?
At the moment, there is nothing very serious. It is mainly food and cosmetic brands that are affected. If the boycott were to last and spread, both geographically and from the point of view of the affected companies, that would be another story. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are two big markets in the Gulf. The flagships of French industry (Vinci, Bouygues, Total, etc.) are very well established in this region. But, for now, a general boycott of French companies in the Middle East seems unlikely.
